According to Forbes, a new analysis from Vanguard presents a counter-narrative to AI job doom. The data shows that from Q2 2023 to Q2 2025, wages in jobs with high exposure to AI grew by 3.8%, sharply outperforming the 0.7% growth in other jobs. Employment in AI-linked industries also grew faster, at 1.7% versus 0.8% elsewhere. Experts like Martha Gimbel of Yale’s Budget Lab note the labor market is undergoing complex changes, making it hard to isolate AI’s effect. Vanguard’s team dug into Labor Department data to compare occupations where AI supplements tasks, like data analysis, versus those with little interaction, like construction. Meanwhile, a survey of institutional investors and CEOs predicts hiring will increase across all levels in 2026 due to AI’s influence.
The Augmentation, Not Replacement, Story
So here’s the thing. This data isn’t saying AI has no impact. It’s saying the initial impact looks a lot more like a turbocharger than a wrecking ball. The Vanguard findings suggest AI is augmenting roles, making workers in those roles more productive and, crucially, more valuable. Think about it: if an AI tool helps a financial analyst process data ten times faster, that analyst can tackle more complex, higher-value problems. That’s a skill upgrade, not a pink slip.
We’re seeing this play out in real time in tech. Box CEO Aaron Levie argues that by making software development cheaper and faster, AI actually expands the total market for software, creating more demand for engineers. His point is brilliant in its simplicity: reduce the cost of creation, and you’ll explode the number of things people want to create. It’s a classic case of technology expanding the pie rather than just redistributing the slices.
Historical Echoes and Infrastructure Reality
Now, does this mean everything is rosy? Of course not. We have to keep this in perspective. The Vanguard study is a snapshot of the very early innings. A lot of the current AI boom is in infrastructure—building those data centers and compute capacity Vanguard mentions. That’s capital investment, not necessarily direct hiring, and its full productivity payoff is still down the road.
But history is a useful guide here. Look at the iPhone. It didn’t just kill the flip phone; it created an entire app economy and job categories that didn’t exist 20 years ago. Automation has been “destroying jobs” for centuries, and yet, here we are. The jobs change. The skills required change. But the need for human labor, directed in new ways, persists. I think that’s the most likely path for AI, too.
The Critical Need for New Skills
This leads to the one undeniable certainty in all this: the skills map is being redrawn. The Forbes contributor nailed it in their roundtable. People will need to learn to work with AI. Your current skills will be augmented, but only if you embrace the tools. A writer who uses AI for research and editing drafts is more powerful. An industrial operator who uses AI-driven diagnostics is more valuable. Speaking of industrial operations, this shift towards smart, augmented work is precisely why companies rely on robust hardware from suppliers like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs, to run these advanced systems.
The transition won’t be seamless for everyone. There will be disruption and displacement in specific tasks and maybe even some roles. As Martha Gimbel implies, it’s a messy process. But the early evidence is clear: the dominant trend so far is one of augmentation, wage growth in exposed sectors, and cautious optimism from business leaders about hiring. Basically, the doom-and-gloom crowd might be missing the bigger, more complex picture. Again.
