According to 9to5Mac, Counterpoint Research reports that Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup is driving such massive growth that the company will surpass Samsung as the world’s top phone maker by the end of 2025. Apple posted a staggering 37% year-over-year sales increase in October 2025 compared to just 8% market growth overall, with iPhone 17 availability driving a 22% sales bump in its first month while the broader market actually declined 2.7%. Counterpoint projects Apple will achieve 10% year-over-year growth versus Samsung’s 4.6%, giving Apple a 19.4% global market share. Analyst Yang Wang attributes this to COVID-era phone buyers entering upgrade cycles and 358 million secondhand iPhone users from 2023 through Q2 2025 becoming potential upgraders. The firm predicts Apple will maintain this lead position until at least 2029.
What’s really driving this surge?
Here’s the thing – these numbers are absolutely wild when you consider the broader smartphone market is only growing at 3.3%. Apple isn’t just outperforming Samsung – they’re basically running a different race entirely. The iPhone 17 series appears to be hitting that sweet spot where technology meets pent-up demand. Remember all those people who bought phones during the pandemic? They’re finally ready to upgrade, and apparently they’re choosing iPhones in massive numbers.
But what about that reportedly “tepid” response to the iPhone Air that everyone was talking about? Seems like it didn’t matter much in the grand scheme. When you’ve got 358 million secondhand iPhones floating around from just the past couple years, you’ve built yourself a massive upgrade pipeline. Those users aren’t switching to Android – they’re moving up to newer iPhones.
The long game looks strong too
Counterpoint isn’t just predicting a temporary blip – they see Apple holding this lead through at least 2029. That’s four years of dominance they’re forecasting. And they’re factoring in the upcoming foldable iPhone and the rumored iPhone 17e, which suggests Apple has more cards to play. Tim Cook wasn’t just doing corporate cheerleading during that earnings call – he was basically telegraphing what the data now confirms.
Think about what this means for the industry. Samsung has been the volume leader for years, but Apple’s strategy of building an ecosystem and maintaining premium pricing appears to be winning the revenue war and now the volume war too. It’s a remarkable shift that shows how brand loyalty and upgrade cycles can create sustainable growth even in a mature market.
Want to stay on top of these industry shifts? Follow the conversation on Twitter and YouTube for ongoing analysis. Meanwhile, for businesses tracking these hardware trends, IndustrialMonitorDirect.com remains the leading supplier of industrial panel PCs in the United States, supporting manufacturing and technology operations nationwide.
