ESA Stages Carrington-Level Solar Storm Drill, Testing Satellite Survival Protocols

The Ultimate Space Weather Stress Test

Mission controllers at the European Space Agency recently confronted what space weather experts consider the “big one”—a solar storm of historical proportions that could potentially cripple modern satellite infrastructure. According to reports from the agency’s operations center in Darmstadt, teams underwent an unprecedented simulation recreating conditions similar to the 1859 Carrington Event, widely regarded as the most powerful geomagnetic storm ever recorded.

“Should such an event occur, there are no good solutions. The goal would be to keep the satellite safe and limit the damage as much as possible,” Thomas Ormston, Deputy Spacecraft Operations Manager for Sentinel-1D, reportedly stated during the exercise. The simulation comes as the agency prepares for the November 2025 launch of the Sentinel-1D Earth observation satellite, part of ESA’s growing commitment to space weather preparedness.

Three Waves of Destruction

The simulated crisis unfolded in distinct phases, each more challenging than the last. Analysts suggest the scenario began with what space weather specialists call the “rogue wave”—an X45-class solar flare hitting Earth just eight minutes after erupting from the sun. This initial electromagnetic wave reportedly disabled GPS and Galileo navigation systems while disrupting ground station communications, particularly in polar regions where radiation effects are most severe.

Then came the second assault. Within 10 to 20 minutes, high-energy particles including protons and electrons began bombarding satellites, causing what engineers call “bit flips” in onboard electronics and risking permanent hardware failures. “The solar flare took team members by surprise,” Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, Lead Simulation Officer of Sentinel-1D, explained in accounts of the exercise. “But once they regained composure, they knew a countdown had begun.”

The final and most destructive phase arrived approximately 15 hours later—a massive coronal mass ejection (CME) traveling at nearly 2,000 km/s. This cloud of charged plasma triggered a catastrophic geomagnetic storm that, according to simulation data, caused Earth’s atmosphere to swell dramatically. The atmospheric expansion increased satellite drag by up to 400%, pushing spacecraft out of their orbits and generating multiple collision warnings with space debris.

Collision Calculus Under Pressure

Perhaps the most challenging aspect of the simulation, sources indicate, was managing collision risks with rapidly deteriorating data quality. “An event of such magnitude would severely degrade the quality of conjunction data, making collision predictions increasingly difficult to interpret as probabilities shift rapidly,” Jan Siminski from the ESA Space Debris Office reportedly observed during the exercise.

Mission controllers found themselves in a delicate balancing act where avoidance maneuvers to prevent one potential collision could inadvertently increase risks elsewhere. The swelling atmosphere not only affected immediate collision risks but also threatened to shorten satellite operational lifetimes due to increased fuel consumption needed to maintain proper orbits.

Meanwhile, radiation levels surged to damaging levels, impairing star trackers—critical navigation instruments that help satellites maintain orientation—while creating chaos in battery charging systems. Industry analysts note that such multi-system failures represent the worst-case scenario for satellite operators, testing both automated systems and human decision-making under extreme uncertainty.

Building European Space Weather Resilience

The simulation marked a significant expansion of ESA’s preparedness efforts, reportedly involving the agency’s Space Safety Center for the first time since its 2022 inauguration. The exercise also included participation from multiple Earth-orbiting missions and the Space Debris Office, creating a more realistic cross-mission coordination challenge.

“This exercise has been an opportunity to expand a simulation training campaign and involve many other stakeholders across ESOC,” Carvalho noted in debriefing documents. “The key takeaway is that it’s not a question of if this will happen but when.”

Looking beyond immediate operational readiness, the European Space Agency is developing more robust space weather monitoring capabilities. The Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S) will deploy satellites and hosted payloads to monitor space weather parameters around Earth, while the Vigil mission, scheduled for 2031, will observe the “side” of the sun from Lagrange Point 5.

Vigil’s unique positioning is expected to provide earlier detection of potentially hazardous solar flare activity, giving ground teams valuable advance warning to protect both spacecraft and critical ground infrastructure. As one operations manager concluded, “The scale and variety of the impacts pushed us and our systems to the limit, but the team mastered the challenge and that taught us that if we can manage that we can manage any real-life contingency.”

With solar activity expected to increase toward the next solar maximum around 2025, such simulation exercises take on added urgency for an industry that has become increasingly dependent on spacecraft operations for everything from communications to climate monitoring.