According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs traders see 2026 shaping up as another solid year for tech, with the Nasdaq 100 already up about 22% in 2025. Their tech sector specialist, Peter Callahan, warned returns might be more weighted to the first half, with potential unknowns like midterm elections and a weaker economy looming later. He highlighted a basket of “fallen angel” stocks to watch, including Roblox, which is up 40% this year but got a recent $170 price target from Morgan Stanley implying a 110% upside. Other names were Visa and Mastercard, up roughly 12% and 10% this year, and DoorDash, up about 39%, which Citi named a top pick for 2026 with a $283 target suggesting 22% more upside.
Goldman’s Cautious Optimism
Here’s the thing: when a major bank like Goldman says the rally should continue but then immediately starts talking about “potential unknowns” in the back half of the year, you should probably listen to the caution. Callahan’s note basically says, “Yeah, 2026 should be good… but don’t get too comfortable.” Consolidating for a few months can be a healthy pause before another leg up, or it can be a sign the momentum is stalling. And pinning uncertainty on elections and economic weakness? That’s not exactly a bold, contrarian call. It feels like they’re setting up a narrative where any dip is expected, which is a handy way to manage client expectations.
The “Fallen Angels” Play
So what about these specific stocks? The “fallen angel” thesis is classic Wall Street: find good companies that the market has temporarily fallen out of love with, and buy before sentiment shifts. But it’s a tricky game. Roblox is a fascinating case. A 40% gain year-to-date doesn’t exactly scream “beaten down,” but Morgan Stanley’s double-price-target hinges entirely on its new age verification system being a non-issue. That’s a huge “if.” One data point on user safety turning investor concern into a strength seems like a very optimistic leap. And Visa and Mastercard? The Evercore note admits they’ve executed flawlessly but were just a “source of funds.” That’s trader-speak for “people sold them to buy sexier stuff.” That trend can reverse, sure, but single-digit upside targets (8% for Visa, 6% for Mastercard) aren’t exactly thrilling for the average investor after fees.
The Delivery Dilemma
Then there’s DoorDash. Up 39% this year and still a top pick? Citi’s thesis relies on order growth accelerating. But look, the economics of food and grocery delivery are brutally tough, with thin margins and constant competitive pressure. Banking on “mid-to-high teens” growth in a saturated market is a bold assumption. It feels like analysts are forever chasing the next growth vertical—first food, now grocery, next who knows—to justify valuations. I think the real question is: when does the focus shift from growth at all costs to actual, sustained profitability?
The Broader Context
Ultimately, this whole note reads like a carefully calibrated year-end memo. It’s optimistic enough to keep clients invested, but littered with enough caveats to cover their bases. Picking “fallen angels” is a smart narrative for a market that’s been led by a handful of mega-cap winners. It suggests there’s value to be found if you look off the beaten path. But let’s be real: these aren’t hidden gems. They’re large, well-covered companies where the bullish thesis requires very specific things to go right—Roblox’s safety features, DoorDash’s grocery expansion, a rotational trade back into fintech. It’s a stock picker’s market, they say. And notes like this remind you that stock picking is hard.
