According to TheRegister.com, NASA last heard from its MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN) orbiter on December 6, 2024. Tracking data indicates the spacecraft is tumbling and its orbit may have changed, making it incredibly hard to locate. On December 16 and 20, engineers even used the Curiosity rover’s Mastcam to try and spot MAVEN in its expected orbit, but failed. The situation is now urgent because the Mars solar conjunction—a period where the Sun blocks communications—runs from Monday, December 29, 2024, to Friday, January 16, 2026. During this entire window, NASA cannot send commands to any of its Mars missions, leaving MAVEN on its own.
The real worry: it’s not in safe mode
Here’s the thing that has engineers really concerned. When a spacecraft has a major problem, it’s supposed to trigger a “safe mode.” It shuts down non-essential systems and just waits for help. A space industry source told The Register that if MAVEN were in safe mode, NASA would probably be talking to it by now. So whatever hit this probe was so sudden or severe that it couldn’t even execute that basic safety protocol. That’s not a good sign. It points to something pretty catastrophic, like an energetic event that sent it spinning unexpectedly.
They’re basically running out of time
And now, the clock is a huge problem. The solar conjunction is a hard deadline. NASA has outlined its efforts to fix MAVEN before the blackout, but those have failed. Once communications are cut on December 29, the team can’t do a thing until mid-January 2026. That’s over two weeks where a tumbling spacecraft with a potential navigation failure is just… out there. Its orbit could decay further. Power could drain. The window to save it is slamming shut, and there’s nothing anyone on Earth can do to stop it.
This isn’t MAVEN’s first rodeo
Look, MAVEN is a veteran. It arrived at Mars in September 2014 and has been on an extended mission for years. But it’s had issues before. Back in 2022, it had serious problems with its Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs)—the devices it uses to know which way it’s pointing—and spent a long time in safe mode. NASA got it back online then by switching to a backup system. So the guidance and navigation systems are a known weak spot. Is this a repeat? Maybe. But the fact that it didn’t enter safe mode suggests this failure is different, and potentially worse.
So what happens next?
After January 16, 2026, NASA will try again to call home. But if they can’t re-establish control, MAVEN’s fate is sealed. Without thruster firings to maintain its orbit, it will eventually spiral down and burn up in the Martian atmosphere. As the mission FAQ notes, some hardy components might even make it to the surface. It’s a tough end to think about for a spacecraft that taught us so much about how Mars lost its atmosphere. For mission teams, this is the brutal side of deep-space operations. You build robust systems, but sometimes space throws a problem at you that’s just too fast and too violent to recover from. All you can do is wait and hope it survives the silence.
